Miranda, Rebekah, thanks for the time today. NorthBeam gives you a clean day to day view, but it can't see the downstream lift from Snapchat, YouTube, and TikTok Web the way an impressions model can.
This page covers how Fospha measures that gap, two beauty brands that proved the same thing, and how the Snap-funded pilot gets you 12 months of Fospha at no cost.
Three things worth taking from this
- 1NorthBeam's click model can't see Snapchat's real impact, which is the exact gap this program exists to close. "If we shift more budget, are we just going to tank the business?" Fospha's impressions model shows whether Snap is actually driving the downstream lift you're hoping for, so that call gets easier to make.
- 2You're running roughly $1M a month across Snapchat, Meta, Google, YouTube, AppLovin, and TikTok, but a deterministic click model misses most Snap-driven conversions since they rarely get clicked or viewed through. Fospha's impressions model catches what the click model can't.
- 3Snap is funding 12 months of Fospha at no cost, specifically because brands scaling upper-funnel spend need proof it's working before they commit more budget.
Seeing what NorthBeam can't
NorthBeam is solid for day to day optimization, but it runs on clicks and views, and you flagged that most Snapchat-driven conversions never get tracked that way. That's the exact gap Fospha is built to close.
- Fospha layers an impressions model on top of your click data, so Snapchat, YouTube, and TikTok Web get credit for the downstream conversions NorthBeam's cookie-based model misses.
- Saturation curves show where you actually have headroom to scale Snap, instead of guessing whether more budget helps or just gets wasted.
- Two years of GA4 history get ingested on day one, so you can see how this year's slower efficiency compares to your stronger baseline before deciding where to reallocate.
- The model reconciles against your own Shopify numbers, so what you see in Fospha matches what's already reported on your platform.
The halo is a bonus
Your team is judged on new customer D2C revenue, and that stays the focus. But your CEO has said any proof that paid spend is lifting the rest of the business is a welcome bonus, and Fospha already measures that halo across Amazon, Sephora, Target, and TikTok Shop.
- Fospha connects to Amazon, Sephora, and Target's own data, so a halo effect on those channels can be shown without changing your D2C numbers.
- TikTok Shop gets modeled separately from TikTok Web, since GMV Max drives sales in a completely different way than your paid social spend.
- If your CEO wants that story for finance, it's there to pull whenever you need it. It never has to become your team's KPI.
The PDF below breaks down how Fospha traces paid social spend through to Amazon and retail sales, useful if you want to bring your CEO a data point instead of just a good feeling.
The model, explained simply
Fospha runs as a daily marketing mix model. It ingests two years of your GA4 history from day one, then layers an impressions model on top of a click model so upper-funnel channels like Snapchat and YouTube get evaluated the same way as Meta and Google. Because it re-runs daily, you get saturation curves and channel-level guidance you can act on right away instead of waiting on a quarterly test.
Scope, speed, or science — you shouldn't have to pick
Most measurement tools force a tradeoff. MTA gives you speed and granularity but misses upper funnel and Amazon. Incrementality testing gives you causal proof but only in the moment. Quarterly MMM gives you strategic scope but can't drive a weekly budget decision. Fospha is built to stop making that tradeoff.
| Tool | Good for | Not built for |
|---|---|---|
| MTA e.g. NorthBeam |
Ad-level creative testing, fast intraday signals | Cross-channel budget decisions, upper funnel, Amazon halo |
| Incrementality e.g. WorkMagic |
Proving true lift for a specific channel or test | Always-on decisions — tests go stale fast, you can't run them every day |
| Quarterly MMM e.g. Recast, agency models |
Long-term strategic planning, offline + online mix | Weekly budget decisions — too slow and too coarse for day-to-day |
| Fospha | Daily MMM + ad-level granularity + halo measurement | Replacing your CRM, creative testing tools, or incrementality tests |
You're already using NorthBeam for day to day optimization, which is the right call for that. Fospha sits on top to show what NorthBeam's click model can't: whether Snapchat, YouTube, and TikTok Web are driving real downstream lift, and whether that lift holds up the way your WorkMagic test suggested it might.
Brands seeing the same results
Nécessaire sells across DTC and Amazon and couldn't see how TikTok and Meta drove marketplace sales. With Fospha's Halo, TikTok's true ROAS came in twice as high as its DTC-only number and Meta's was 87% higher, so both cleared target. They scaled ahead of Prime Day and revenue rose 7X versus the prior week, 47% above benchmark.
Topicals had cut GMV Max spend because they couldn't prove its downstream impact. Fospha showed it was driving a large halo across Amazon and DTC, around 7.0 total commerce ROAS against the 2.2 reported in TikTok Ads Manager. They scaled GMV Max 460% and saw a 3.7X uplift in Amazon revenue.
Next steps
- Will sends Fospha marketing materials this week for the team to review before the demo.
- Demo booked for next Thursday at 1:30pm Central with Miranda and Rebekah.
- Will confirms whether TikTok Shop sales can be separated from D2C within Shopify reporting.
Platform walkthrough
Full walkthrough of the platform, reporting views, and daily workflow.
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